Species distribution models predicting climate suitability for the psyllid Trioza erytreae, vector of citrus greening disease

The African citrus psyllid, Trioza erytreae (Hemiptera: Triozidae), is a vector of greening (Huanglonbing - HLB), bacterial disease caused by Candidatus liberibacter spp. Native to Africa, T. was detected in the Canary Islands and Madeira early 2000s then northwestern Spain 2014. Since then, has become established along Atlantic coastal areas Iberian Peninsula. Therefore, an accurate assessment potential long-term establishment major citrus-growing regions Europe world urgently needed design adapted control strategies. I calibrated correlative species distribution models understand bioclimatic characteristics that determine erytreae, assess climatic suitability world's for psyllid under current future climate conditions. using only data from Africa (its native range), Islands, Madeira, evaluated them available invaded area continental Europe. This approach aims avoid spurious good measures model accuracy arising spatial autocorrelation between calibration evaluation datasets. identify mild summer winter temperatures high levels precipitation as optimal conditions establishment, consistent with its physiology. In Europe, predict Peninsula highly climatically suitable, pattern corresponds exactly currently psyllid. Models most important are, will remain future, poorly except case physiological adjustments. These results are crucial appropriate pest management strategies timely where recently been detected.